LNG贸易公司的兴起

原标题:The rise of trading houses in the LNG world – part one

原文来自麦肯锡

OffshoreIntel™️ | 鹰投海洋科技编译整理

在过去10年中,液化天然气市场朝着越来越复杂的方向发展。市场规模翻了一番,从以附有严格的目的地条款的长期贸易为主的市场转向了转向了相对灵活但复杂的市场,因为其同时受到现货销售和天然气基准相关的交易的强烈影响,并且再次交易和目的地互换的情况也不断增加。

在这样的转变中,新的利益相关者随之出现并开始蓬勃发展,他们所充当的主要角色是作为资源持有者和最终用户之间的中介。这样的中介包括拥有各种资源组合的大型能源公司,单个的液化项目的业主,以及最近发展起来的单纯的贸易公司。

尽管贸易公司在LNG领域的到来早已被预见,但由于市场规模的受限以及早些年的供应紧张,使得他们很难获得立足的空间。虽然一些贸易公司已经设法成功地进入了液化天然气贸易市场,但其所占比例仍然相对较小,约占2015年交易量的3-5%。

然而,这些已经成功进入LNG市场的的贸易商在未来将非常有潜力,因为两大趋势将在世界范围内主导LNG市场中长期的发展:预计在未来6-9年,市场将维持供大于求的买方市场,市场亟需流动性和可用容量的增加;大多数对LNG新的需求将来自现有的17个和正在可能进入的15个新兴市场。

贸易公司在6个关键领域有着其独特的价值,使他们更加适合为这些市场服务。

【英文如下】The LNG market has evolved significantly in terms of both complexity and sophistication over the last 10 years. It has doubled in size and moved from a market dominated by long-term trade with strict destination clauses to one also strongly influenced by spot sales, tenders, and gas benchmark-linked trade, along with an increase in re-trades and destination swaps. Within this market shift, new types of stakeholders have appeared and begun to flourish largely as intermediaries between resource holders and end users. These intermediaries include portfolio players, dedicated liquefiers, and, more recently, trading houses. Even though the arrival of trading houses in the LNG space had been long anticipated, the constrained market size and supply tightness of earlier years made it difficult for them to gain an appreciable foothold. While some trading houses have managed to successfully enter the LNG market even in a constrained environment, their footprint has remained relatively small, accounting for approximately 3-5 % of the traded volume in 2015. The role of those established traders going forward, however, has the potential to increase remarkably as two big megatrends are expected to dominate the LNG world in the mid and long term: The market is expected to become long in the next 6-9 years, catalysing increased liquidity and the availability of volumesThe majority of new LNG demand is expected to come from 17 recent and over 15 ‘likely’ emerging markets. Trading houses have a unique value proposition based on 6 key areas covered below that makes them particularly well-placed to

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